The Australian Dollar is trading higher shortly after the U.S. opening on Wednesday. The currency is recovering from early session weakness, fueled by short-covering and position-squaring ahead of the release of the Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 1800 GMT.

At 1110 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7582, up 0.0008 or +0.10%.

Generally speaking, a hawkish Fed will be bearish for the AUD/USD. It all depends on the Fed’s future rate hike projections.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, the Forex pair has been moving lower since June 6. A trade through .7677 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through .7476 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A move through .7515 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is .7812 to .7412. Its retracement zone at .7612 to .7659 is controlling the near-term direction of the AUD/USD. It is currently the resistance that stopped the rally last week.

The short-term range is .7412 to .7677. Its retracement zone at .7544 to .7513 is the primary downside target. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on a test of this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at .7544.

A sustained move over .7544 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum, we could see a test of the main 50% level at .7612, followed by .7659.

A sustained move under .7544 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the support cluster at .7515 to .7513. If this area fails then look for the selling to extend into .7476.

The key to today’s direction will be how investors handle a test of .7444 to .7513. Bullish traders need to form another higher bottom in order to maintain the strong upside bias.

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